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11.05.2026 12:52 AM
British Pound: Weekly Preview. Negotiations Will Push the Dollar Down

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The British currency continues to rise within an upward wave structure. Since the fifth wave has not yet formed a clear impulsive structure, I do not consider it completed and expect further continuation. The EUR/USD instrument may also continue to rise, as its upward set does not appear complete either. It is extremely important that the expectations and wave counts of both the British pound and the euro align.

Unfortunately, much of next week's dynamics will depend on geopolitical news. Over the weekend, it was reported that a second round of negotiations between Iran and the US may take place in Pakistan in the coming days. I would like to remind you that a week earlier, the parties were supposed to hold an in-person meeting, but Tehran canceled it several times due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports by American warships. Currently, Tehran is reportedly ready for a face-to-face meeting, according to insiders. Whether to trust the insiders is up to traders. I would refrain from making hasty conclusions. Iran is not only under a naval blockade but also a financial one. Tehran cannot export its oil to the Far East and is desperately seeking alternative routes for selling black gold. However, transporting the volumes extracted daily via road transport or other logistics methods is extremely challenging. Therefore, Trump's financial blockade is allegedly working at full capacity, according to insiders and rumors.

If a new meeting occurs, it could help the pound continue to build its upward wave structure. However, there are very few significant economic events to note for next week. Only on Thursday will the UK release data on first-quarter GDP and industrial production. The British economy may grow by 0.3-0.6% in the first quarter, which is considerable given the low growth rates in recent years. Conversely, industrial production may decline in March, but I want to emphasize that the economy is not currently the primary concern for market participants.

Therefore, I expect the GBP/USD instrument to rise next week, and I will be closely monitoring any geopolitical news. The more positive rumors and insights that emerge, the easier it will be for the market to increase demand for the British pound. I believe it can reach the 37 figure relatively easily. Following that, there should be at least a one-wave correction if the upward segment of the trend takes on a more extended and complex form. I currently see no grounds for a downward trend segment.

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Wave Picture of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (as illustrated in the lower image) and, in the short term, is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, elongated form. The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East continues to improve, which is driving buyer optimism. I expect a new upward movement from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.

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Wave Picture of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had predicted. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts that may soon be completed. If this is indeed the case, we should expect the formation of a corrective wave set after the completion of wave 5. Wave 5 could be completed around the 1.3699 level, which corresponds to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale. If geopolitical developments continue toward long-term peace, the upward segment of the trend may take on a more extended form. Thus, the combination of waves and geopolitical factors will determine the British pound's fate in the coming weeks.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and are often subject to change.
  2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
  3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Ringkasan
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Analitic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
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