The GBP/USD pair has returned to a "bullish" imbalance but has not yet formed a buy signal, unlike the euro. The difference lies in the fact that the pound's imbalance is much wider, and therefore requires more time to play out. I continue to expect a reaction from this imbalance and further growth in the GBP/USD pair. Let me remind you that the bullish scenario will be canceled only if imbalance 14 is invalidated, which also acts as a support zone. If the pair falls below the base of the imbalance (the 1.3400 level), then it can be assumed that bears have seized the initiative and are ready to launch their own offensive. However, this week hardly anyone expects a bearish advance. For that to happen, U.S. inflation, labor market, and unemployment reports would need to be extremely positive for the dollar. Specifically, Nonfarm Payrolls would have to show convincing growth, signaling a revival of the labor market; the unemployment rate must not rise; and inflation must decline.

From the standpoint of the fundamental background in 2025–2026, it is difficult for me to imagine a prolonged bearish advance. That said, it is impossible to be 100% certain that it cannot happen. In my view, the working strategy at the moment is to wait for a reaction from the bullish imbalance. And going forward, until the bullish trend is canceled, I will also remain focused exclusively on buying and upside moves.

The bullish trend in the pound remains intact, as confirmed by the chart picture. Just since November 5, traders have already had at least three opportunities to open long positions. Over this period, the pound has gained 640 points, measured from the low of the move to the current price.

The fundamental background on Monday was virtually absent. In my opinion, bears squeezed out everything they could last week. U.S. ISM business activity indices supported them, and even the Bank of England meeting was perceived as a "dovish" event, despite no changes to monetary policy parameters. However, the chart picture remains unchanged, which means that on any pullback, traders should still maintain a bullish bias.

In the United States, the overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite challenging. U.S. labor market statistics continue to disappoint. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions. Recent labor market data suggest that the pause in monetary easing will be short-lived. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Iran, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, a new "shutdown," and the scandal involving the U.S. elite in the Epstein case all neatly complete the current picture of a political and structural crisis in the country. In my view, bulls have everything they need to continue their offensive throughout 2026.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors continue to hang like dead weight on the dollar. What would bears use to push the pound lower? If new bearish patterns emerge, a potential decline in sterling can be reconsidered, but at the moment there are none.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (weekly) (13:15 UTC)
• U.S. – Retail Sales Change (13:30 UTC)

On February 10, the economic calendar contains two events that are not of particular interest. The impact of the fundamental background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be weak.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the picture remains bullish—only a new signal is missing. Bulls have entered a new offensive that threatens to become quite prolonged and substantial. Since the bullish trend is undeniable, traders are left to trade to the upside using clear patterns and clear signals. In the near future, traders can expect the formation of a new bullish signal within imbalance 14. As a target for potential growth, I previously considered the 1.3725 level, which has already been reached, but the pound could rise much higher in 2026. There are no limits. The nearest attractive target appears to be 1.4246—the June 2021 high.