On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its sluggish decline and consolidated below the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.1945. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.1867. A consolidation of the pair above 1.1945 would work in favor of the European currency and a modest rise toward the corrective level of 200.0% at 1.2031.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave broke the previous peak. Thus, the trend remains bullish. The bulls are continuing a new offensive that might not have happened without Donald Trump. Trump has driven global tensions to the limit, and markets continue to react by fleeing from the risky US currency with uncertain economic prospects.

There was extremely little news in the currency market on Thursday—for the first time since the beginning of 2026. Donald Trump has accustomed traders in the new year to daily news flow and has made it clear that he does not intend to postpone his plans. Therefore, in the near future, tariffs may be raised against Canada and South Korea, an airstrike may be carried out against Iran in support of protesters opposing the government, and the Greenland issue appears to have been resolved—though no one understands how. In my view, the Greenland issue also remains relevant, as it is currently completely unclear what position the European Union and Denmark hold regarding the agreements between Trump and Rutte. Also this week, an FOMC meeting took place at which no important decisions were made and no significant statements were issued. Since little news has been coming in recently, traders prefer to stay on the sidelines and engage in corrective movements. Today, a fairly large number of economic reports will be released, mainly in the European Union, but the market is waiting for news from Trump.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the resistance level of 1.2041–1.2066 and fell to the corrective level of 100.0% at 1.1918. A consolidation below this level would work in favor of a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1813. A rebound from the 1.1918 level would allow traders to expect a return to the 1.2041–1.2066 level. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional players closed 8,357 long positions and opened 12,604 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 275,000, while short positions amount to 163,000. This represents almost a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing longs. Then the shutdown began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States—for example, deterioration in the labor market. Traders fear a loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.

News calendar for the US and the European Union:

• European Union – Change in the unemployment rate in Germany (08:55 UTC).
• European Union – Change in the number of unemployed in Germany (08:55 UTC).
• European Union – Change in GDP in Germany in the fourth quarter (09:00 UTC).
• European Union – Change in GDP in the fourth quarter (10:00 UTC).
• European Union – Consumer Price Index in Germany (13:00 UTC).
• USA – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On January 30, the economic calendar contains six events, about half of which can be considered interesting. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be of moderate strength.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.1945 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1867 and 1.1805. Buying is possible on a rebound from the 1.1867 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.2031 and 1.2172, or after a consolidation above the 1.1945 level.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1918–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.