Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The test of the price at 1.1769 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips.

Undoubtedly, the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by positive reports on rising house prices and the Chicago business activity index, had a significant impact on current currency market trends. However, year-end timing, persistent uncertainty about the pace of US economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and potential shifts in central bank strategies could again put pressure on the US currency next year. Yesterday's minutes from the December Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers are not abandoning the idea of further rate cuts, which will continue to weigh on the dollar in the medium term.

Today, the euro will likely remain under pressure, since no economic data for the Eurozone is scheduled in the first half of the day. In the absence of fresh figures reflecting the region's economy, investors will have to rely on the already set trajectory. The lack of reports may further strengthen the dollar at year-end.

For the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1750 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1771. At 1.1771, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. Expect euro gains only as part of a minor correction. Important: before buying, make sure the MACD is above zero and has just started to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1733 while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal up. Expect a rise toward 1.1750 and 1.1771.

Sell scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1733 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1714, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25-pip reversal from that level). Some downward pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important: before selling, make sure the MACD is below zero and has just begun to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1750 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and produce a reversal down. Expect a decline to 1.1733 and 1.1714.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the instrument;
• Thick green line – approximate price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits, since further rise above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the instrument;
• Thick red line – approximate price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.