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"Hungary chose Europe," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on social media. Given the vigor with which the US president had backed the now-ousted Hungarian leader, that defeat is highly symbolic. Donald Trump's hopes for a quick de-escalation in the Middle East also ran into reality on April 12, 2026. Peace talks between the United States and Iran held in Pakistan ended in complete failure. After an exhausting 21-hour diplomatic marathon, the delegations left Islamabad without signing a single document.
"We've made very clear what our red lines are, but Iran chose not to accept our terms. I think it's bad news for Iran more than for the United States," US Vice President JD Vance summed up the talks in a terse statement. It was reported that US forces would begin blockading all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports. Experts say a US blockade of Iran would amount to a large-scale military operation. The stumbling block was the parties' counter-demands, which turned out to be diametrically opposed. Tehran insisted on an immediate cessation of fire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of assets (including $6 billion in Qatar) even before substantive dialogue began.
Iranian media even reported that Washington had allegedly agreed to unblock funds in exchange for guaranteed security in the Strait of Hormuz. US officials were quick to deny that report. Iran, in turn, accused America of making "unreasonable demands" that made mission success impossible. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains critical. Despite rhetoric about a "clearing of the strait as a service to the world," Trump has effectively declared a naval blockade. The incident in which a US destroyer was denied passage through the artery was symbolic.
Trump says, "movement is prohibited," and that the US will act in the interests of the largest economies (Japan, China, Germany), but in practice, shipping remains paralyzed. US intelligence adds grim detail to the picture:
Iran still possesses thousands of ballistic missiles;
launchers are dispersed in deep underground storage and ready to be moved into firing positions;
the war has already caused significant damage to Saudi and Qatari oil-and-gas infrastructure, making a restoration of global supplies a distant prospect.
The peace talks in Islamabad predictably failed — and it was hardly surprising. The depth of political planning in Washington has hit a historical low: any foreign policy initiative taken by the current administration turns into a debacle. While Trump habitually proclaims on social media "complete demilitarization of Iran" and "destruction of air-defense systems and drone factories," reality on the ground imposes very different constraints. Iran did not merely refuse US ultimatums — it presented its own counter-demands.
The financial world is bracing for a difficult week ahead. The breakdown of negotiations and the abrupt end to Vice President Vance's press briefing, during which he declined to answer questions about a resumption of full-scale war, have created a security vacuum. The main open question is whether the diplomatic fiasco in Pakistan signals a US return to the active phase of Operation Epic Fury. While Trump and Vance remain silent, the world is holding its breath, waiting to see whether Washington will cross the very "red lines" the vice president mentioned, or whether the conflict will descend into a protracted war of attrition in which "Black Monday" is only the opening act of a new global crisis.
The two-week pause in hostilities produced the predictable — yet no less absurd — "parade of victories." Every side in the conflict (even those that had stayed in the shadows, like the UAE) rushed to proclaim its triumph. However, beneath the media noise and morale?boosting slogans lies a reality that is growing harder to camouflage, because interpretation of events has become fully politicized. Most importantly, a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has not occurred. Shipping remains selective, intermittent, and extremely unstable. Traffic is multiples, and in some cases an order of magnitude, below pre-war levels.
The ceasefire is being used not for peace but for emergency regrouping, damage assessment, and rearming. No one hides intentions to resume fighting at the first opportunity. For decades, the US sold the region on the idea of being a "security guarantor," but the war's real outcomes contradict that concept of protection:
tens of billions in direct losses
destroyed infrastructure
Iran's growing leverage and assertiveness
At the same time, Donald Trump wants to step back, masking that choice with a stream of statements about "everlasting victories." When a military adventure generates a critical volume of imbalances that threaten civilization itself, the ability to hit the brakes is a tactical advantage. However, Iran, sensing weakness, has seized this historic chance with a vise-like grip. Tehran understands: if not now, then never. And while the US struggles to save face, Iran is busy dictating new rules of the game. The Middle East is rapidly tilting toward a new security guarantor — China. Beijing, having not participated in the region's destruction, now looks like the only power capable of offering stability where the US has shown complete failure.
Theoretically, the US could strip Iran of its levers of influence by maintaining a high intensity of strikes for 4–6 months until inter-industry ties in the military industrial complex were thoroughly severed. The problem is Trump does not have that time. Economic and financial costs for the West are mounting faster than Iran's resilience can be degraded. The risk of a financial collapse on the scale of 2008 is higher than ever. The White House meltdown in early April made it clear: the US has reached its pain threshold. Iran is winning on strategic endurance, knowing that Trump urgently needs a way out before the midterm Congressional elections in November 2026.
Meanwhile, with Iran standing firm and growing more aggressive, the global economy is holding its breath for another spike in oil prices. The ceasefire remains a fragile illusion. The failure of talks in Islamabad is not the end of the process but a signal that a new, even more volatile phase of the conflict has begun. The physical oil market has slid into near-hysteria. In the North Sea spot market, the barometer for most global grades, this week showed an unprecedented imbalance: forty buyer bids met only four offers.
Physical spot cargoes with immediate delivery are trading at prices above $140 per barrel, markedly higher than exchange quotes. Refineries worldwide are forced to strike bespoke deals with suppliers from the remotest regions as the hole in the global balance caused by the loss of Middle East exports becomes critical. Traders warn this deficit will only widen in the coming weeks, exposing the scale of the real damage to global supply.
Against this backdrop, the Trump administration has been swept into a scandal involving political-prediction markets. The White House circulated an official warning to staff prohibiting bets on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The letter was sent on March 24, immediately after the announcement of a five-day pause in strikes on Iran, amid growing concern that officials might use nonpublic information for personal gain. The situation escalated when Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres filed an official request with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate suspicious activity.
The trigger was "freshly created" addresses on Polymarket that placed highly specific and timely bets on the ceasefire date just before Trump announced it on April 7. It is unlikely those trades were based on public information, since the president's public rhetoric at the time signaled escalation rather than peace. That raises serious suspicions of insider access capable of instantly crashing or inflating prices. Torres's suspicions are supported by the transaction history: suspicious accounts booked hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits hours before the official announcement.
Bubblemaps analysts have previously documented similar patterns:
In January, three crypto addresses earned more than $630,000 by betting on the removal of Nicolas Maduro shortly before his capture by US special forces.
In early March, another six accounts, created just a day before the attack, took in about $1 million by wagering on a military strike on Iran.
The White House press office calls these allegations baseless, insisting the president and his aides act solely on ethical grounds and in the American public interest. Nevertheless, the market sees a troubling pattern: while the world watches politicians' statements, somebody always seems to know Trump's next move slightly ahead of the rest and converts geopolitical chaos into multi-million-dollar profits. The US economy has already begun reacting to geopolitical pressure. Consumer prices in March posted the sharpest rise in four years, jumping from 2.4% to 3.3%.
If the war shifts into a prolonged blockade phase, US inflation will inevitably break above 4%, wiping out any hopes for a soft landing for the American economy. In an interview with Fox News, Trump effectively acknowledged the likelihood of higher fuel prices by the midterm elections in November, vaguely hoping the crisis "won't last that long," even though the shortage is only just beginning to be felt in full. The dollar's share of global currency and gold reserves has collapsed to 46%, reaching a 26-year low. Central banks worldwide are aggressively diversifying into gold, recalling the trust crisis of the 1990s. And suspicions of insider trading may give the opposition fresh grounds to call for the US president's impeachment.
April 13
April 13, 15:30 / Canada / ** / Building permits in February / prev.: 6.1% / act.: 4.8% / est.: -0.5% / USD/CAD – up
Canada's construction sector outperformed pessimistic expectations in February 2026, posting a 4.8% increase in permits. A closer look at the details shows:
the entire jump was driven by industrial projects and government facilities
commercial construction, by contrast, contracted
There is also a split within housing: Canadians want to build detached houses, while many are abandoning multi-unit projects. If March's forecast of -0.5% is realized, that would signal cooling investment momentum and weigh on the Canadian dollar.
April 13, 17:00 / US / *** / Existing home sales in March / prev.: 4.02m / act.: 4.09m / est.: 4.01m / SDX (six-currency USD index) – down
The US existing home market showed signs of life in March 2026, accelerating to a 4.09m annualized pace. Consumers are starting to respond to improved credit availability, although activity remains a long way short of pre-pandemic levels. The main paradox: employment is about 6 million higher than in 2019, yet home sales are roughly 1 million lower. A downside revision to 4.01m would be a negative for the economy and could put downward pressure on the US dollar.
April 14
April 14, 02:01 / UK / ** / BRC retail sales in March / prev.: 2.3% / act.: 0.7% / est.: 0.9% / GBP/USD – up
British retail was hit hard in February 2026: sales growth slowed to 0.7%, missing already modest expectations. The culprits are not only squeezed wallets but an unusually wet February that depressed foot traffic. The only bright spot was Valentine's Day, which supported perfumery and jewelry sales. If March data comes in around the 0.9% forecast, that will give the pound a chance to firm locally against the dollar.
April 14, 03:30 / Australia / ** / Consumer Confidence (leading index) in April / prev.: 90.5 pts / act.: 91.6 pts / est.: 89.0 pts / AUD/USD – down
Australian consumer confidence edged up to 91.6 in March 2026. Despite the improvement from February, the index remains below its historical norm of 100. Australians are cautious, balancing inflation concerns against a willingness to spend. If the April forecast of 89.0 is realized, that would signal a return of pessimism and push AUD/USD lower.
April 14, 04:30 / Australia / ** / NAB Business Confidence in March / prev.: 4 / act.: -1 / est.: -6 / AUD/USD – down
Australia's business confidence index slipped into negative territory for the first time in a year, falling to -1 in February 2026. The main trigger for pessimism was the February rate hike, which pushed firms into a more cautious stance. Operational conditions, however, remain broadly intact:
order volumes have tripled
sales are rising
demand remains resilient
Constraining factors include renewed cost pressures (higher input and labor costs) and uncertainty related to the Middle East situation. A drop of the March index to the -6 forecast would likely weigh on the Australian dollar.
April 14, 06:00 / China / *** / Exports in March (surplus) / prev.: 6.6% / act.: 39.6% / est.: 8.3% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's exports in the first two months of 2026 posted an explosive 21.8% year-on-year gain, reaching the strongest pace since 2021. Chinese exporters successfully adapted to US tariffs by redirecting major flows to ASEAN, the EU, and Latin America (shipments to these regions rose by more than 27%). Strong sales of refined oil products and industrial equipment confirm manufacturing resilience. Such robust data may prompt Beijing to delay additional stimulus measures. If March's export share reaches the 8.3% forecast, expect Brent to come under pressure and the yuan to weaken.
April 14, 06:00 / China / *** / Imports in March (surplus) / prev.: 5.7% / act.: 13.8% / est.: 11.1% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's imports climbed by 19.8% year-on-year at the start of 2026, marking the fastest pace of purchases in four years. The main contributors were:
seasonal consumer demand
active stockpiling of crude oil (oil imports +15.8%)
Despite a sharp slump in purchases from the United States (-26.7%), imports from Asia and Europe recorded double-digit gains. A cooling property market continues to limit demand for copper and natural gas. If March imports rise to the 11.1% forecast, Brent prices and the yuan are likely to come under downward pressure.
April 14, 07:30 / Japan / *** / Industrial production in February / prev.: 0.9% / act.: 0.7% / est.: 0.3% / USD/JPY – up
Japan's industrial production rose by 0.3% year-on-year in February 2026. Current growth rates remain well below the historical average (4.39%), confirming a slow recovery in the country's industrial core. The indicator reflects persisting fragility in manufacturing cycles amid global economic instability. If production growth slows to the 0.3% forecast in March, the yen is likely to weaken versus the dollar.
April 14, 09:00 / Germany / ** / Wholesale prices in March / prev.: 1.2% / act.: 1.2% / est.: 1.0% / EUR/USD – down
German wholesale prices rose by 1.2% year-on-year in February 2026, marking a fifteenth consecutive month of gains. The main driver was an explosive rise in nonferrous metal and ore prices (+44.9%). On a monthly basis, inflation slowed to 0.6% but still beat analyst expectations. If the March reading falls to the 1.0% forecast, the euro will come under pressure.
April 14, 13:00 / US / ** / NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in March / prev.: 99.3 pts / act.: 98.8 pts / est.: 98.6 pts / USDX (six-currency USD index) – down
The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 98.8 in February, missing market expectations. Despite profit and sales gains at some firms, competition from large corporations continues to weigh on the sector. A positive note was a decline in business concerns about supply chain disruptions and workforce quality. If the index slips to the 98.6 forecast in March, the dollar index is likely to soften.
The US private sector is showing a dynamic recovery: weekly payroll gains reached 26,000 — the strongest reading since ADP began weekly reporting in 2025. A three-week trend of employment expansion supports labor market resilience and is likely to increase volatility in the US dollar index.
April 14, 15:30 / US / *** / Producer prices in March / prev.: 2.1% / act.: 3.4% / est.: 4.1% / USDX (six-currency USD index) – up
US producer price inflation accelerated to 3.4% in February 2026, well above market expectations. Of particular concern is the jump in core PPI to 3.9% — a three-year high. This dynamic signals persistent inflationary pressure in the production pipeline. If March's PPI reaches the 4.1% forecast, the dollar index is likely to strengthen.
April 14, 23:30 / US / ** / API crude oil inventories / prev.: 10.263m bbl / act.: 3.719m bbl / est.: – / Brent – volatile
API data show US crude inventories rose for the fourth straight week, increasing by 3.72 million barrels in the reporting period. The stockpile build is partially offset by a sharp draw in gasoline inventories (nearly 4 million barrels) and distillates. This mix points to a volatile reaction in Brent ahead of the official DOE figures.
April 15
April 15, 12:00 / Eurozone / *** / Industrial production growth in February / prev.: 2.2% / act.: -1.2% / est.: -0.4% / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly contracted by 1.2% year-on-year in January 2026, breaking a year-long growth streak. The outcome was materially worse than forecasts and below long-run averages. If February's production decline comes in near the -0.4% forecast, that could support the euro amid the recent correction.
April 15, 15:30 / Canada / ** / Manufacturing sales growth in February / prev.: 0.6% / act.: -3.0% / est.: 3.8% / USD/CAD – down
Canada's industrial sector is positioned for a sharp rebound: following a 3.0% decline in January, sales are forecast to rise 3.8% in February. The recovery is expected to be driven by transport equipment and food-processing subsectors. If the forecast is realized, it would mark the strongest monthly gain since early 2023, supporting the Canadian dollar and pushing USD/CAD lower.
April 15, 15:30 / US / ** / Export price growth in March / prev.: 2.6% / act.: 3.5% / est.: 5.9% / USDX (six-currency USD index) – up
US export prices accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in February, the largest gain since last autumn. The reading is well above the long-run average (1.46%), confirming stronger external demand and inflationary pressure from US goods. If March's export price inflation reaches the 5.9% forecast, the US dollar index will receive significant support.
April 15, 15:30 / US / *** / Import prices in March / prev.: 0.3% / act.: 1.3% / est.: 2.6% / USDX (six-currency USD index) – up
US import prices rose by 1.3% year-on-year in February, with non-fuel goods posting their largest annual gain since 2022 (+2.5%). While imported crude eased, natural gas showed an anomalous surge of 57.9%. The monthly jump in the index was the sharpest in four years. If March's import inflation reaches the 2.6% forecast, it will add further upside pressure to the USDX.
April 15, 15:30 / US / *** / NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (leading) in April / prev.: 7.1 pts / act.: -0.2 pts / est.: 0.5 pts / USDX (six-currency USD index) – up
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly slipped into near-zero territory in March (-0.2), missing optimistic forecasts. Despite overall stagnation, new-order intake persists and delivery times have lengthened materially. Firms continue to contend with high input costs but maintain plans to boost capex. If the leading index rises to the 0.5 forecast in April, it will support the US dollar index.
April 15, 17:00 / US / ** / NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index in April (leading) / prev.: 37 pts / act.: 38 pts / est.: 37 pts / USDX (six-currency USD index) – up
Builder confidence ticked up in March — the NAHB index reached 38. Buyers remain cautious amid uncertainty and interest rate concerns, prompting nearly two-thirds of builders to keep discount and incentive programs active to stimulate demand. Nevertheless, rising six-month sales expectations signal that the market may have passed the trough. If the index holds at or above 37 in April, the dollar should retain upside potential.
April 15, 17:30 / US / ** / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: 5.451m bbl / act.: 3.081m bbl / est.: 9.761m bbl / Brent – down
Official EIA data confirmed a 3.08 million barrel build in US crude stocks for the week, well below analyst expectations. The inventory build amid lower imports and refinery throughput is partially offset by a sharp draw in distillates (-3.1m bbl) and gasoline. However, the overall surplus in storage remains the dominant factor. If inventories rise to the 9.76m forecast next week, Brent prices is expected to move lower.
April 13, 13:00; 15:15 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos / EUR/USD
April 14, 01:15; 23:00 / Australia / Speech by Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Andrew Hauser / AUD/USD
April 14, 01:20 / US / Speech by Governor of the Federal Reserve Board Steven Miran / USDX
April 14, 17:00; 18:30 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Governing Council member Philip Lane / EUR/USD
April 14, 18:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone / EUR/USD
April 14, 19:00 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD
April 14, 19:15 / US / Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee / USDX
April 14, 19:45 / US / Speech by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr / USDX
April 14, 20:00 / US / Speech by Boston Fed President Susan Collins / USDX
April 14, 22:00 / UK / Speech by Megan Greene, Monetary Policy Committee member, Bank of England / GBP/USD
April 15, 00:00; 22:30 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD
April 15, 11:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn / EUR/USD
April 15, 15:30 / US / Speech by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr / USDX
April 15, 18:20; 21:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone / EUR/USD
April 15, 20:45 / US / Speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman / USDX
April 15, 21:00 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD
April 15, 21:00 / US / Release of the Fed's Beige Book (12?district economic survey) / USDX
April 15, 23:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel / EUR/USD
April 15, 23:00 / Australia / Speech by Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Andrew Hauser / AUD/USD
Comments from senior central bank officials are scheduled throughout these sessions. Their remarks typically drive FX volatility because they can signal the regulators' next policy steps.
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