Trade Review and Euro Trading Recommendations

The price test at 1.1539 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the anticipated decline in the pair did not materialize.

Perhaps it was due to Trump's persistent statements that the conflict in the Middle East is about to end, or possibly strong German industrial production data — in any case, the euro managed to extend its previous gains, leading to a fairly solid recovery of Friday's sell-off.

Next, attention will shift to the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the trade balance, and existing home sales data. Although these macroeconomic indicators may appear unrelated, they are in fact closely interconnected, forming a broader picture of the U.S. economy. Small business optimism often serves as a leading indicator, reflecting entrepreneurs' confidence in the future and their willingness to invest and expand. The trade balance provides insight into the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services in global markets as well as domestic purchasing power. Existing home sales are one of the key indicators of consumer confidence and the financial sector. A decline in housing demand may indicate a negative trend, which would put pressure on the U.S. dollar.

A combined analysis of these three indicators provides a comprehensive view of the current economic situation. For example, if small business optimism is rising and new home sales are increasing, but a large trade deficit persists, this may suggest that domestic demand is strengthening while structural issues in external trade remain unresolved. Conversely, negative signals across all fronts may indicate an approaching recession.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases may be considered when the price reaches the 1.1573 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1597. At 1.1597, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth can be expected only if U.S. data comes out weak. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2: Euro purchases are also considered today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1559, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1573 and 1.1597 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Euro selling is planned after reaching the 1.1559 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1532, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: Euro selling is also considered in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1573, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1559 and 1.1532 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.