Trade breakdown and trading tips for the euro

A price test of 1.1540 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a short euro trade. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

In addition to the ECB decision, one of the most important events will be the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI). An increase in PPI may indicate rising costs for businesses, which in turn may lead to higher prices for end consumers and support the US dollar. In addition, weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will provide up-to-date information on the US labor market. An increase in jobless claims may signal a slowdown in hiring or even rising layoffs, while consistently low figures would indicate continued strength in the labor market.

It is also worth keeping in mind the Middle East situation, where new US strikes on Iran may put strong pressure on the euro and support buying in the US dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered if the price reaches the 1.1554 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1620. At 1.1620, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth will only be possible after weak US data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1522, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels at 1.1554 and 1.1620 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1522 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1455, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Downward pressure may return today in the case of a sharp rise in inflation. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1554, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the upward potential of the pair and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels at 1.1522 and 1.1455 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – overbought and oversold conditions should be used as key signals when entering trades

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if proper money management is not used and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by default, a losing intraday strategy.